It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard query to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
