Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
